Toronto Baseball Guys
Tuesday, July 31, 2012
Snider for Lincoln
I was at the Rogers Centre on September 4, 2008. Jesse Litsch shut out the Twins 9-0, and a 20-year-old outfielder named Travis Snider belted his first career home run in just his fourth career game. I can recall turning to fellow Baseball Guy Rob Metcalfe and remarking "that might the first of 500 or more."
That seems preposterous when talking about a kid who looks indistinguishable from a bat boy, but less so when you look at the number of players who reach the majors at age 20. There simply aren't many, and among the ones there are you find names like Ott, Matthews, Rodriguez (pick one), Cobb and Williams.
After that September cup of coffee in which he hit .301/338/.466, many Jays fans envisioned Snider as a staple in the outfield for the next 10-15 years. It didn't work out, as Snider rode the shuttle between Las Vegas and Toronto showing occasional flashes of brilliance, interspersed with injuries and prolonged slumps.
His walk rate tumbled, from one every 9.5 plate appearances in 2009 to one in 20 in 2011. He continued to thump the ball in Las Vegas, but couldn't seem to consolidate that performance with the big club. Finally, on Monday night, Snider was removed from the game in Seattle, having been traded for RHP Brad Lincoln.
This prompted a collective "Who?" from Blue Jays fans everywhere.
He's a 27-year-old relief pitcher... from Pittsburgh.
That prompted a collective "What?!" from those same fans. Or, as Mike Wilner put it:
Lincoln is just more unrealized potential - a 4th overall pick who is just now establishing himself as a decent reliever. This trade bears some resemblance to the Brandon Morrow -Brandon League swap, in which both parties gave up on talented players who simply hadn't performed to expectations. Like two kids swapping cool toys that they just can't figure out: "Here, see if YOU can make it work."
Lincoln has a history of starting, so it's possible that, as with Morrow, the Jays feel they can "fix" Lincoln and hone his potential as a starting pitcher. Even if they can't, a WHIP of 1.1 and a strikeout per inning will make him a welcome addition to the Jays' pen.
Still, this is the first trade in a while in which the Jays have surrendered more upside. Snider's ceiling is still very high, and if given 550 at-bats next season, it wouldn't be shocking to see him hit 30-35 home runs. The trick will be whether or not he can stay in the majors.
Late Monday, the Jays shipped Eric Thames to Seattle for Steve Delabar. Thames was never a highly touted prospect and moved up the organizational ladder the old-fashioned way - he just kept hitting, including a serviceable .262/.313/.456 as a rookie in 2011. He's a good story, a hard worker and brought tons of enthusiasm, but his upside probably isn't too far above what he did as a rookie, and he did take some Magellanic routes to balls in left field. He's organizational filler who was enjoying another good year at Las Vegas and whose trade value was unlikely to increase much further.
Delabar has a closer's strikeout rate (46 Ks in 36 IP), but has also coughed up 9 home runs, which isn't easy when you pitch half your games in Safeco Field. Given the recent history of the Blue Jays and prospective closers, it's safe to say that the fan base won't be holding its breath.
Are the Jays stockpiling power arms in preparation for a larger deal? With the trade deadline hours away, we won't have to wait long to find out.
That seems preposterous when talking about a kid who looks indistinguishable from a bat boy, but less so when you look at the number of players who reach the majors at age 20. There simply aren't many, and among the ones there are you find names like Ott, Matthews, Rodriguez (pick one), Cobb and Williams.
After that September cup of coffee in which he hit .301/338/.466, many Jays fans envisioned Snider as a staple in the outfield for the next 10-15 years. It didn't work out, as Snider rode the shuttle between Las Vegas and Toronto showing occasional flashes of brilliance, interspersed with injuries and prolonged slumps.
His walk rate tumbled, from one every 9.5 plate appearances in 2009 to one in 20 in 2011. He continued to thump the ball in Las Vegas, but couldn't seem to consolidate that performance with the big club. Finally, on Monday night, Snider was removed from the game in Seattle, having been traded for RHP Brad Lincoln.
This prompted a collective "Who?" from Blue Jays fans everywhere.
He's a 27-year-old relief pitcher... from Pittsburgh.
That prompted a collective "What?!" from those same fans. Or, as Mike Wilner put it:
Tonight is EVERYTHING I hate about Twitter.Clearly, the masses were underwhelmed, but that's only natural. No other fan base has been as inundated about Snider's unlimited potential as Blue Jays fans over the past 4 years, and thus no fan base will value him as greatly.
— Mike Wilner (@Wilnerness590) July 31, 2012
Lincoln is just more unrealized potential - a 4th overall pick who is just now establishing himself as a decent reliever. This trade bears some resemblance to the Brandon Morrow -Brandon League swap, in which both parties gave up on talented players who simply hadn't performed to expectations. Like two kids swapping cool toys that they just can't figure out: "Here, see if YOU can make it work."
Lincoln has a history of starting, so it's possible that, as with Morrow, the Jays feel they can "fix" Lincoln and hone his potential as a starting pitcher. Even if they can't, a WHIP of 1.1 and a strikeout per inning will make him a welcome addition to the Jays' pen.
Still, this is the first trade in a while in which the Jays have surrendered more upside. Snider's ceiling is still very high, and if given 550 at-bats next season, it wouldn't be shocking to see him hit 30-35 home runs. The trick will be whether or not he can stay in the majors.
Late Monday, the Jays shipped Eric Thames to Seattle for Steve Delabar. Thames was never a highly touted prospect and moved up the organizational ladder the old-fashioned way - he just kept hitting, including a serviceable .262/.313/.456 as a rookie in 2011. He's a good story, a hard worker and brought tons of enthusiasm, but his upside probably isn't too far above what he did as a rookie, and he did take some Magellanic routes to balls in left field. He's organizational filler who was enjoying another good year at Las Vegas and whose trade value was unlikely to increase much further.
Delabar has a closer's strikeout rate (46 Ks in 36 IP), but has also coughed up 9 home runs, which isn't easy when you pitch half your games in Safeco Field. Given the recent history of the Blue Jays and prospective closers, it's safe to say that the fan base won't be holding its breath.
Are the Jays stockpiling power arms in preparation for a larger deal? With the trade deadline hours away, we won't have to wait long to find out.
Labels: Blue Jays, Brad Lincoln, Eric Thames, Steve Delabar, trade deadline, Travis Snider
¶ posted by Jim Turner at 3:42 PM | 0 comments
Friday, July 13, 2012
Bautista Can Wishcast, Anthopoulos Can't
Jose Bautista wants to win. Badly.
If that wasn't evident from his dour body language after finishing second in the home run derby, it was certainly obvious from the theme of the interviews he gave during the All-Star break:
The Jays are in contention! (Albeit at 43-43)
They're only 2.5 back! (Nevermind the 6 teams they have to leapfrog)
Now is the time for the front office to make a move to put them over the top!
When it is pointed out that the pitching staff has only 3 functional ligaments between them, and that rebuilding the staff will cost the Jays a number of their prized prospects, quoth Joey Bats: "If that's what it takes... it has to be done."
This has set off alarm bells for Toronto's jaded sports fans - already saddled with that "nobody-likes-us" high school insecurity - that this could be the beginning of a disgruntled Bautista wanting out of town.
On the heels of Vince Carter, Tracy McGrady, Chris Bosh, Steve Nash, Roy Halladay, Roger Clemens, Shawn Green, David Wells... ok, you can't really fault them.
But if you dissect Bautista's words, even HE knows that replacing the lost pitching isn't realistic. Observe:
"I know it's wishful thinking"
"Maybe we can add one (arm) and win."
"Maybe people like Brett Cecil and other guys take advantage of the opportunity."
We're grasping at an awful lot of straws here. With Luis Perez the latest arm to go SPROING, the Jays now have 249.2 of their 770 innings pitched on the DL. Replacing a full third of a pitching staff at this point in the season, when every contender is looking to upgrade pitching and prices are exorbitant, could strip the Jays' newly replenished farm system.
Anthopoulos has been marvellously cagey in his trades, dealing from a position of strength to pick up talented problem children from teams ready to contend. He's bought low. In this case, everyone knows what his needs are and buying low will be impossible.
If a low leverage move for an innings eater is available, great, But the likes of Ryan Dempster, Matt Garza, Zack Greinke and Cole Hamels are being sought by just about everyone and the cost will be prohibitive.
After years of a fallow minor league system, the Jays now have an impressive and growing array of prospects. The time may come to cash in some of the future to make a playoff run. This isn't that time, especially when the potential payoff is a lone playoff game that is itself a roll of the dice. Mortgaging significant pieces of the future for a single game will send the Jays into buyer's remorse faster than this guy.
Besides, it's hard to imagine pitching rentals performing better than Aaron Laffey and Carlos Villaneuva have so far. Where the pitching has lagged is with supposed rotation stalwarts Ricky Romero and Henderson Alvarez. They have to be better and the Jays will have to rely on winning a lot of 10-8 games, while sorting out which minor league pitchers can be a viable part of the future.
It's not as sexy as a blockbuster trade for a "proven starter", but it should still make for an intriguing second half, while preserving the young talent that can make this team a perennial contender.
After all, they are still just 2.5 games out.
If that wasn't evident from his dour body language after finishing second in the home run derby, it was certainly obvious from the theme of the interviews he gave during the All-Star break:
The Jays are in contention! (Albeit at 43-43)
They're only 2.5 back! (Nevermind the 6 teams they have to leapfrog)
Now is the time for the front office to make a move to put them over the top!
When it is pointed out that the pitching staff has only 3 functional ligaments between them, and that rebuilding the staff will cost the Jays a number of their prized prospects, quoth Joey Bats: "If that's what it takes... it has to be done."
This has set off alarm bells for Toronto's jaded sports fans - already saddled with that "nobody-likes-us" high school insecurity - that this could be the beginning of a disgruntled Bautista wanting out of town.
On the heels of Vince Carter, Tracy McGrady, Chris Bosh, Steve Nash, Roy Halladay, Roger Clemens, Shawn Green, David Wells... ok, you can't really fault them.
But if you dissect Bautista's words, even HE knows that replacing the lost pitching isn't realistic. Observe:
"I know it's wishful thinking"
"Maybe we can add one (arm) and win."
"Maybe people like Brett Cecil and other guys take advantage of the opportunity."
We're grasping at an awful lot of straws here. With Luis Perez the latest arm to go SPROING, the Jays now have 249.2 of their 770 innings pitched on the DL. Replacing a full third of a pitching staff at this point in the season, when every contender is looking to upgrade pitching and prices are exorbitant, could strip the Jays' newly replenished farm system.
Anthopoulos has been marvellously cagey in his trades, dealing from a position of strength to pick up talented problem children from teams ready to contend. He's bought low. In this case, everyone knows what his needs are and buying low will be impossible.
If a low leverage move for an innings eater is available, great, But the likes of Ryan Dempster, Matt Garza, Zack Greinke and Cole Hamels are being sought by just about everyone and the cost will be prohibitive.
After years of a fallow minor league system, the Jays now have an impressive and growing array of prospects. The time may come to cash in some of the future to make a playoff run. This isn't that time, especially when the potential payoff is a lone playoff game that is itself a roll of the dice. Mortgaging significant pieces of the future for a single game will send the Jays into buyer's remorse faster than this guy.
Besides, it's hard to imagine pitching rentals performing better than Aaron Laffey and Carlos Villaneuva have so far. Where the pitching has lagged is with supposed rotation stalwarts Ricky Romero and Henderson Alvarez. They have to be better and the Jays will have to rely on winning a lot of 10-8 games, while sorting out which minor league pitchers can be a viable part of the future.
It's not as sexy as a blockbuster trade for a "proven starter", but it should still make for an intriguing second half, while preserving the young talent that can make this team a perennial contender.
After all, they are still just 2.5 games out.
Labels: Jose Bautista, trade deadline
¶ posted by Jim Turner at 4:23 PM | 0 comments
Monday, August 02, 2010
Bautista Paradox at the Deadline
The trading deadline passed with surprising quiet for the Jays, an also-ran team with several interesting parts to sell.
For fans dreaming of a huge windfall in exchange for MLB home run leader Jose Bautista, that was never in the cards. Other teams can't take the chance that this is a fluke season for a 29-year-old journeyman who's never approached his current level of play. The Jays, meanwhile, have stumbled upon a cheap masher who is a plus defender at two positions, so they're not about to give Bautista away. Combine the two positions, and it was extremely unlikely that anyone was going to pay what was undoubtedly a steep asking price.
As for the relievers, both Scott Downs and Jason Frasor qualify as Type A free agents, so if they walk away at the end of the season, the Jays qualify for draft pick compensation. Sure, every team with a reliever to sell would like to make the Larry Andersen for Jeff Bagwell deal and flip 22 innings pitched for 449 homers and a Hall of Famer. Of course those deals are relatively rare, proof of which lies in the fact that we're still talking about the Andersen-Bagwell deal 20 years after its consummation.
John Buck qualifies as a Type-B free agent, which would still land the Jays a later draft pick.
Clearly, Alex Anthopoulos would rather have a hand in drafting his own prospects than taking those being offered by other clubs. Plus, he now has the flexibility to bring Downs or Frasor back, should he so choose. Neither should prove terribly expensive and both would be solid contributors to an ever-improving young team.
For fans dreaming of a huge windfall in exchange for MLB home run leader Jose Bautista, that was never in the cards. Other teams can't take the chance that this is a fluke season for a 29-year-old journeyman who's never approached his current level of play. The Jays, meanwhile, have stumbled upon a cheap masher who is a plus defender at two positions, so they're not about to give Bautista away. Combine the two positions, and it was extremely unlikely that anyone was going to pay what was undoubtedly a steep asking price.
As for the relievers, both Scott Downs and Jason Frasor qualify as Type A free agents, so if they walk away at the end of the season, the Jays qualify for draft pick compensation. Sure, every team with a reliever to sell would like to make the Larry Andersen for Jeff Bagwell deal and flip 22 innings pitched for 449 homers and a Hall of Famer. Of course those deals are relatively rare, proof of which lies in the fact that we're still talking about the Andersen-Bagwell deal 20 years after its consummation.
John Buck qualifies as a Type-B free agent, which would still land the Jays a later draft pick.
Clearly, Alex Anthopoulos would rather have a hand in drafting his own prospects than taking those being offered by other clubs. Plus, he now has the flexibility to bring Downs or Frasor back, should he so choose. Neither should prove terribly expensive and both would be solid contributors to an ever-improving young team.
Labels: Anthopoulos, trade deadline
¶ posted by Jim Turner at 2:29 PM | 0 comments
