Toronto Baseball Guys
Sunday, March 31, 2013
Brett Lawrie and the Bench
It was disappointing to hear that Brett Lawrie will start the season on the disabled list. After all, this is the shiniest new Jays lineup in quite a while, and it's a shame that it won't be at its shiniest right out of the gate. The growing body of Lawrie injuries start to make one wonder if he's headed for a Cam Neely/Wendel Clark career path: excellent when healthy, but hard-pressed to stay healthy.
As Bill James has observed, staying healthy is a skill, and while it's too early to proclaim that Lawrie doesn't have that skill at just 23, his list of injuries and the fact that he attacks the game like a B.A.S.E. jumper without a chute leave some room for concern.
The heartening fact to take away from this news, is that the Jays will have a competent major leaguer in Lawrie's stead in Macier Izturis.
For the last couple few years, the Jays had John McDonald and Omar Vizquel as backup infielders. Great stories, wonderful individuals, terrific defenders and essentially useless with the bat.
This year, Alex Anthopoulos has provided his team with a serviceable bench. Here are all of the Blue Jays to come off the bench for at least 150 plate appearances over the past two seasons, along with their On-Base-Percentage Plus Slugging, adjusted for the league and park. 100 is average.
Aside from Jose Molina's career year, there's not a lot there. Here's what the Jays will have coming off the bench this season, with their adjusted OPS over the past 4 years.
Some caveats apply.
As Bill James has observed, staying healthy is a skill, and while it's too early to proclaim that Lawrie doesn't have that skill at just 23, his list of injuries and the fact that he attacks the game like a B.A.S.E. jumper without a chute leave some room for concern.The heartening fact to take away from this news, is that the Jays will have a competent major leaguer in Lawrie's stead in Macier Izturis.
For the last couple few years, the Jays had John McDonald and Omar Vizquel as backup infielders. Great stories, wonderful individuals, terrific defenders and essentially useless with the bat.
This year, Alex Anthopoulos has provided his team with a serviceable bench. Here are all of the Blue Jays to come off the bench for at least 150 plate appearances over the past two seasons, along with their On-Base-Percentage Plus Slugging, adjusted for the league and park. 100 is average.
PA OPS+ Mathis '12 227 71 Gose '12 189 70 Sierra '12 157 74 Vizquel '12 163 49 Rivera '11 275 80 Snider '11 202 65 McCoy '11 228 53 Molina '11 191 104 McDonald '11 182 70 Nix '11 151 49
Aside from Jose Molina's career year, there's not a lot there. Here's what the Jays will have coming off the bench this season, with their adjusted OPS over the past 4 years.
Derosa 87 Davis 89 Blanco 84 Bonifacio 83 Izturis 99
Some caveats apply.
- Derosa might be done at 37, though he's claiming to be fully healthy and did show some pop during the spring.
- Henry Blanco is 168 years old and wouldn't be called upon to carry the lion's share of catching duties, even if J.P. Arencibia gets trampled by a herd of wildebeests Opening Day.
- OPS+ does not take into account the speed of Davis or Bonifacio, which comprises the bulk of their value.
Labels: 2013, bench, Blue Jays, Brett Lawrie
¶ posted by Jim Turner at 1:45 PM | 0 comments
Wednesday, March 27, 2013
Ricky Ro Gotta Go
The decision to send Ricky Romero to A ball to work out his issues is the right call for this team at this time. The team spent the off season building a winner, so allowing Romero to toy with his mechanics at the major league level sends the wrong message to a fan base that has been starved for a winner for 20 years. You are saying that we are only interested in trying to win 80% or our games.
Many other pitchers have had to do this, Roy Halladay and Mike Timlin come immediately to mind, so it is not the end of the world. Let's hope we get back Ricky circa 2011 and we have one of 5 or 6 best starting pitchers in baseball.
Many other pitchers have had to do this, Roy Halladay and Mike Timlin come immediately to mind, so it is not the end of the world. Let's hope we get back Ricky circa 2011 and we have one of 5 or 6 best starting pitchers in baseball.
Labels: Blue Jays, Ricky Romero
¶ posted by Rob at 10:43 AM | 0 comments
Sunday, March 24, 2013
Gibbons Not THAT Surprising a Hire
There were quite a few eyebrows raised when the Blue Jays chose John Gibbons to manage their revamped lineup. Retread managers, rehired by the club that fired them, are rare - particularly when they didn't win in their first go around.
Historically, only Bobby Cox, rehired by the Atlanta Braves after leading the Blue Jays to the 1985 AL East title, has been brought back to a team that fired him without winning a championship for that team. If Gibbons can repeat the success Cox had with the Braves in his second stint... well, that would do.
Gibbons was decent enough in his first go with the Jays, posting a 305-305 record, with some well-known bumps in the road, but hey, who HASN'T wanted to throttle Ted Lilly at some point? He's a braver choice than retreads like Jim Tracy or Jim Riggleman, and a known commodity for Alex Anthopoulos.
It shouldn't be a huge shock that the Jays would bring someone back. After all, over the years, they have brought back or reacquired:
This is Team Prodigal Son, right down to Gregg Zaun and Jack Morris returning as analysts after finishing their careers elsewhere. There's a culture of "Once a Blue Jay, Always a Blue Jay" in the organization, with Gibbons as merely the latest beneficiary.
Gibbons was decent enough in his first go with the Jays, posting a 305-305 record, with some well-known bumps in the road, but hey, who HASN'T wanted to throttle Ted Lilly at some point? He's a braver choice than retreads like Jim Tracy or Jim Riggleman, and a known commodity for Alex Anthopoulos.
It shouldn't be a huge shock that the Jays would bring someone back. After all, over the years, they have brought back or reacquired:
- Paul Beeston
- Cito Gaston
- Jim Acker
- Pat Borders
- Jacob Brumfield
- Rob Butler
- Tony Castillo
- Howie Clark
- Rob Ducey
- Mark Eichhorn
- Tony Fernandez (x3)
- Jason Frasor
- Alfredo Griffin
- Pat Hentgen
- Ken Huckaby
- Cliff Johnson
- Doug Linton
- Brandon Lyons
- John MacDonald
- Candy Maldonado
- Trever Miller
- Chad Mottola
- Dan Plesac
- Luis Sojo
- Paul Spoljaric
- Shannon Stewart
- Dave Stieb
- Brian Tallet
- David Wells
- Dewayne Wise
- Chris Woodward
This is Team Prodigal Son, right down to Gregg Zaun and Jack Morris returning as analysts after finishing their careers elsewhere. There's a culture of "Once a Blue Jay, Always a Blue Jay" in the organization, with Gibbons as merely the latest beneficiary.
Labels: Alex Anthopoulos, Blue Jays, John Gibbons
¶ posted by Jim Turner at 11:55 PM | 0 comments
Tuesday, July 31, 2012
Snider for Lincoln
I was at the Rogers Centre on September 4, 2008. Jesse Litsch shut out the Twins 9-0, and a 20-year-old outfielder named Travis Snider belted his first career home run in just his fourth career game. I can recall turning to fellow Baseball Guy Rob Metcalfe and remarking "that might the first of 500 or more."
That seems preposterous when talking about a kid who looks indistinguishable from a bat boy, but less so when you look at the number of players who reach the majors at age 20. There simply aren't many, and among the ones there are you find names like Ott, Matthews, Rodriguez (pick one), Cobb and Williams.
After that September cup of coffee in which he hit .301/338/.466, many Jays fans envisioned Snider as a staple in the outfield for the next 10-15 years. It didn't work out, as Snider rode the shuttle between Las Vegas and Toronto showing occasional flashes of brilliance, interspersed with injuries and prolonged slumps.
His walk rate tumbled, from one every 9.5 plate appearances in 2009 to one in 20 in 2011. He continued to thump the ball in Las Vegas, but couldn't seem to consolidate that performance with the big club. Finally, on Monday night, Snider was removed from the game in Seattle, having been traded for RHP Brad Lincoln.
This prompted a collective "Who?" from Blue Jays fans everywhere.
He's a 27-year-old relief pitcher... from Pittsburgh.
That prompted a collective "What?!" from those same fans. Or, as Mike Wilner put it:
Lincoln is just more unrealized potential - a 4th overall pick who is just now establishing himself as a decent reliever. This trade bears some resemblance to the Brandon Morrow -Brandon League swap, in which both parties gave up on talented players who simply hadn't performed to expectations. Like two kids swapping cool toys that they just can't figure out: "Here, see if YOU can make it work."
Lincoln has a history of starting, so it's possible that, as with Morrow, the Jays feel they can "fix" Lincoln and hone his potential as a starting pitcher. Even if they can't, a WHIP of 1.1 and a strikeout per inning will make him a welcome addition to the Jays' pen.
Still, this is the first trade in a while in which the Jays have surrendered more upside. Snider's ceiling is still very high, and if given 550 at-bats next season, it wouldn't be shocking to see him hit 30-35 home runs. The trick will be whether or not he can stay in the majors.
Late Monday, the Jays shipped Eric Thames to Seattle for Steve Delabar. Thames was never a highly touted prospect and moved up the organizational ladder the old-fashioned way - he just kept hitting, including a serviceable .262/.313/.456 as a rookie in 2011. He's a good story, a hard worker and brought tons of enthusiasm, but his upside probably isn't too far above what he did as a rookie, and he did take some Magellanic routes to balls in left field. He's organizational filler who was enjoying another good year at Las Vegas and whose trade value was unlikely to increase much further.
Delabar has a closer's strikeout rate (46 Ks in 36 IP), but has also coughed up 9 home runs, which isn't easy when you pitch half your games in Safeco Field. Given the recent history of the Blue Jays and prospective closers, it's safe to say that the fan base won't be holding its breath.
Are the Jays stockpiling power arms in preparation for a larger deal? With the trade deadline hours away, we won't have to wait long to find out.
That seems preposterous when talking about a kid who looks indistinguishable from a bat boy, but less so when you look at the number of players who reach the majors at age 20. There simply aren't many, and among the ones there are you find names like Ott, Matthews, Rodriguez (pick one), Cobb and Williams.
After that September cup of coffee in which he hit .301/338/.466, many Jays fans envisioned Snider as a staple in the outfield for the next 10-15 years. It didn't work out, as Snider rode the shuttle between Las Vegas and Toronto showing occasional flashes of brilliance, interspersed with injuries and prolonged slumps.
His walk rate tumbled, from one every 9.5 plate appearances in 2009 to one in 20 in 2011. He continued to thump the ball in Las Vegas, but couldn't seem to consolidate that performance with the big club. Finally, on Monday night, Snider was removed from the game in Seattle, having been traded for RHP Brad Lincoln.
This prompted a collective "Who?" from Blue Jays fans everywhere.
He's a 27-year-old relief pitcher... from Pittsburgh.
That prompted a collective "What?!" from those same fans. Or, as Mike Wilner put it:
Tonight is EVERYTHING I hate about Twitter.Clearly, the masses were underwhelmed, but that's only natural. No other fan base has been as inundated about Snider's unlimited potential as Blue Jays fans over the past 4 years, and thus no fan base will value him as greatly.
— Mike Wilner (@Wilnerness590) July 31, 2012
Lincoln is just more unrealized potential - a 4th overall pick who is just now establishing himself as a decent reliever. This trade bears some resemblance to the Brandon Morrow -Brandon League swap, in which both parties gave up on talented players who simply hadn't performed to expectations. Like two kids swapping cool toys that they just can't figure out: "Here, see if YOU can make it work."
Lincoln has a history of starting, so it's possible that, as with Morrow, the Jays feel they can "fix" Lincoln and hone his potential as a starting pitcher. Even if they can't, a WHIP of 1.1 and a strikeout per inning will make him a welcome addition to the Jays' pen.
Still, this is the first trade in a while in which the Jays have surrendered more upside. Snider's ceiling is still very high, and if given 550 at-bats next season, it wouldn't be shocking to see him hit 30-35 home runs. The trick will be whether or not he can stay in the majors.
Late Monday, the Jays shipped Eric Thames to Seattle for Steve Delabar. Thames was never a highly touted prospect and moved up the organizational ladder the old-fashioned way - he just kept hitting, including a serviceable .262/.313/.456 as a rookie in 2011. He's a good story, a hard worker and brought tons of enthusiasm, but his upside probably isn't too far above what he did as a rookie, and he did take some Magellanic routes to balls in left field. He's organizational filler who was enjoying another good year at Las Vegas and whose trade value was unlikely to increase much further.
Delabar has a closer's strikeout rate (46 Ks in 36 IP), but has also coughed up 9 home runs, which isn't easy when you pitch half your games in Safeco Field. Given the recent history of the Blue Jays and prospective closers, it's safe to say that the fan base won't be holding its breath.
Are the Jays stockpiling power arms in preparation for a larger deal? With the trade deadline hours away, we won't have to wait long to find out.
Labels: Blue Jays, Brad Lincoln, Eric Thames, Steve Delabar, trade deadline, Travis Snider
¶ posted by Jim Turner at 3:42 PM | 0 comments
