Toronto Baseball Guys
Wednesday, November 21, 2012
Quite the Week
Now that Bud Selig has finally approved the largest trade in Blue Jays history, it's safe to reflect on the franchise makeover. There was never any real danger that MLB would void the trade, but taking a week to ruminate over it gave Selig the chance to "Tut, tut" the Marlins and throw Miami fans a bone that the commissioner is keeping a watchful eye on the team's fire-selling way (It also activated the latent Canadian paranoia in every Jays fan: "This never happens to the Yankees!!!")
So with that out of the way, time for some cogent analysis: Woohoo!
Yes, the Jays gave up some excellent prospects. Yes, the players coming back could be considered to have had "down" years - though none had bad years. Johnson's velocity might be down a tad. Buehrle really likes his dogs...
Fair enough. But the trade instantly rebuilds the starting rotation. A looking-to-rebound Ricky Romero can now slot into the #4 spot in the rotation instead of the #2 spot. Jose Reyes is the most multi-faceted offensive player the team has fielded since Roberto Alomar. And Emilio Bonifacio gives the team an actual bench. While John McDonald and Omar Vizquel were fun to have around, they were more mascot than actual value.
While the Jays parted with some value, they gave up players who might turn into the players they acquired if everything breaks right. Henderson Alvarez might one day be as effective as Josh Johnson. Adeiny Hechavarria might approach the .780 OPS that Reyes posted in 2012. In this deal, the Jays collect the finish products, at the cost of Rogers finally flexing their financial might.
It's nice to be in on the ground floor of a fire sale for once. This is the type of infuriating thing the Yankees usually pull off.
Oh, and as a bonus they offloaded this guy:
To fill the void of "Latin-born player who will be widely booed in opposing parks" left by Escobar, the Jays picked up Melky Cabrera for two years and $16 million. That's about $50 million less than he would have made had he not been popped for steroids. Don't expect him to reach the batting title heights of 2012, but he'll be a welcome improvement over Rajai Davis as the everyday left fielder.
A week ago, the Blue Jays rotation was spotty at best and the lineup had some glaring holes. They now sport a solid starting 4 and a balanced, potent attack. It might be time to get excited.
So with that out of the way, time for some cogent analysis: Woohoo!
Yes, the Jays gave up some excellent prospects. Yes, the players coming back could be considered to have had "down" years - though none had bad years. Johnson's velocity might be down a tad. Buehrle really likes his dogs...
Fair enough. But the trade instantly rebuilds the starting rotation. A looking-to-rebound Ricky Romero can now slot into the #4 spot in the rotation instead of the #2 spot. Jose Reyes is the most multi-faceted offensive player the team has fielded since Roberto Alomar. And Emilio Bonifacio gives the team an actual bench. While John McDonald and Omar Vizquel were fun to have around, they were more mascot than actual value.
While the Jays parted with some value, they gave up players who might turn into the players they acquired if everything breaks right. Henderson Alvarez might one day be as effective as Josh Johnson. Adeiny Hechavarria might approach the .780 OPS that Reyes posted in 2012. In this deal, the Jays collect the finish products, at the cost of Rogers finally flexing their financial might.
It's nice to be in on the ground floor of a fire sale for once. This is the type of infuriating thing the Yankees usually pull off.
Oh, and as a bonus they offloaded this guy:
To fill the void of "Latin-born player who will be widely booed in opposing parks" left by Escobar, the Jays picked up Melky Cabrera for two years and $16 million. That's about $50 million less than he would have made had he not been popped for steroids. Don't expect him to reach the batting title heights of 2012, but he'll be a welcome improvement over Rajai Davis as the everyday left fielder.
A week ago, the Blue Jays rotation was spotty at best and the lineup had some glaring holes. They now sport a solid starting 4 and a balanced, potent attack. It might be time to get excited.
Labels: Alex Anthopoulos, Jose Reyes, Josh Johnson, Mark Buerhle, Melky Cabrera, trade
¶ posted by Jim Turner at 12:58 AM | 0 comments
Wednesday, July 27, 2011
Rasmus: Escobar Part 2?
After a busy day of wheeling and dealing, Alex Anthopoulous scattered no fewer than 11 players into the trade winds, including Edwin Jackson twice and perhaps as many as three players to be named later.
With respect to the Brian Tallets and Mark Teahans of the world, the trades can be distilled down to three players of consequence:
St. Louis picks up Edwin Jackson to bolster their rotation for the stretch drive. Jackson's a solid innings eater and should improve on a 3.92 ERA in the National League.
The White Sox acquire Zach Stewart, arguably the most rotation-ready prospect in the Jays system. He could be added to the Sox rotation immediately.
The Blue Jays snag 24-year-old centre fielder Colby Rasmus.
This deal is almost a carbon copy of the Yunel Escobar trade from a year ago. Rasmus is currently hitting just .240 with 11 home runs, though with an OPS still above league average. These numbers are a far cry from Rasmus' excellent sophomore season in which he hit 23 home runs and posted an .860 OPS. As with Escobar, whose star had fallen in Atlanta, there is simply no way that Rasmus would have been available this past spring - certainly not for the price Anthopoulous ended up paying.
And so, in the span of 12 months, the Blue Jays have added two potential cornerstone players, playing key defensive positions, in exchange for Zach Stewart, Alex Gonzalez and a collection of spare parts. This is the type of creative risk-taking that mid-payroll teams need to employ to become and remain competitive.
Sure, there's a chance that Rasmus is an attitude problem and won't become the star he's supposed to, but when you have the shot at the young, talented guy with the disgruntled manager - you take it.
One thing is certain, he'll be a welcome relief from the Magellanic routes taken by Corey Patterson and Rajai Davis in centre.
Caveat: The potential sleeper in this trade is Mark Rzcepcynski, who, in the clutches of Dave Duncan, could become a quality starting pitcher.
With respect to the Brian Tallets and Mark Teahans of the world, the trades can be distilled down to three players of consequence:
St. Louis picks up Edwin Jackson to bolster their rotation for the stretch drive. Jackson's a solid innings eater and should improve on a 3.92 ERA in the National League.
The White Sox acquire Zach Stewart, arguably the most rotation-ready prospect in the Jays system. He could be added to the Sox rotation immediately.
The Blue Jays snag 24-year-old centre fielder Colby Rasmus.
This deal is almost a carbon copy of the Yunel Escobar trade from a year ago. Rasmus is currently hitting just .240 with 11 home runs, though with an OPS still above league average. These numbers are a far cry from Rasmus' excellent sophomore season in which he hit 23 home runs and posted an .860 OPS. As with Escobar, whose star had fallen in Atlanta, there is simply no way that Rasmus would have been available this past spring - certainly not for the price Anthopoulous ended up paying.
And so, in the span of 12 months, the Blue Jays have added two potential cornerstone players, playing key defensive positions, in exchange for Zach Stewart, Alex Gonzalez and a collection of spare parts. This is the type of creative risk-taking that mid-payroll teams need to employ to become and remain competitive.
Sure, there's a chance that Rasmus is an attitude problem and won't become the star he's supposed to, but when you have the shot at the young, talented guy with the disgruntled manager - you take it.
One thing is certain, he'll be a welcome relief from the Magellanic routes taken by Corey Patterson and Rajai Davis in centre.
Caveat: The potential sleeper in this trade is Mark Rzcepcynski, who, in the clutches of Dave Duncan, could become a quality starting pitcher.
Labels: Colby Rasmus, trade
¶ posted by Jim Turner at 6:24 PM | 0 comments
Wednesday, July 14, 2010
Gonzo for Escobar a No-Brainer
Consider if you will the following two shortstops, both well-regarded defensively:
Oh, and shortstop A will be 33 years old next season making $2.75 million, and shortstop B will be 27 and making $435 000. Who would you rather have?
Shortstop A is, of course, Alex Gonzalez through 2009. Shortstop B is Yunel Escobar through 2009. 2010 has been a different story: everything Gonzalez touches goes for extra bases, if not right out of the park, while Escobar has taken a step back at an age where he should putting up career highs.
This is the blueprint for a perfect trade for Alex Anthopoulus: sell your veteran high for the younger player whose stock is way down. Is it possible that Gonzalez will be a 30 home run shortstop for the next few seasons, and that Escobar may have stopped hitting? Anything is possible, but any GM of a rebuilding ball club should still make this trade every time. When the trade is one that was completely unfathomable six months ago, you take that risk.
It's not an awful trade for the Braves; they're trying to win now, and Escobar isn't going to make anyone forget Honus Wagner, but he should solidify the Jays at shortstop for the next few years, and he gives them an on-base threat - something the offense is sorely lacking. Escobar's presence also allows Adeiny Hechevarria more time to develop.
Sure, the Jays will have to hope that prospects Tim Collins and Tyler Pastornicky don't go all Fred McGriff in Atlanta, but that's a caveat whenever shuffling 20-year-olds around, and those considerations can't make a GM fearful of pulling the trigger on a deal.
Jo-Jo Reyes is the "live arm" throw-in. This year at AAA, he has cut his walks/9, more than doubled his strikeouts per 9, while more than doubling his ERA - a tough feat, to be sure. He has struck out almost a batter per inning over 500+ minor league innings, so he could develop into something useful.
AVG OBP SLG OPS+
SS A . 247 .294 .395 78
SS B .301 .375 .426 112
Oh, and shortstop A will be 33 years old next season making $2.75 million, and shortstop B will be 27 and making $435 000. Who would you rather have?
Shortstop A is, of course, Alex Gonzalez through 2009. Shortstop B is Yunel Escobar through 2009. 2010 has been a different story: everything Gonzalez touches goes for extra bases, if not right out of the park, while Escobar has taken a step back at an age where he should putting up career highs.
This is the blueprint for a perfect trade for Alex Anthopoulus: sell your veteran high for the younger player whose stock is way down. Is it possible that Gonzalez will be a 30 home run shortstop for the next few seasons, and that Escobar may have stopped hitting? Anything is possible, but any GM of a rebuilding ball club should still make this trade every time. When the trade is one that was completely unfathomable six months ago, you take that risk.
It's not an awful trade for the Braves; they're trying to win now, and Escobar isn't going to make anyone forget Honus Wagner, but he should solidify the Jays at shortstop for the next few years, and he gives them an on-base threat - something the offense is sorely lacking. Escobar's presence also allows Adeiny Hechevarria more time to develop.
Sure, the Jays will have to hope that prospects Tim Collins and Tyler Pastornicky don't go all Fred McGriff in Atlanta, but that's a caveat whenever shuffling 20-year-olds around, and those considerations can't make a GM fearful of pulling the trigger on a deal.
Jo-Jo Reyes is the "live arm" throw-in. This year at AAA, he has cut his walks/9, more than doubled his strikeouts per 9, while more than doubling his ERA - a tough feat, to be sure. He has struck out almost a batter per inning over 500+ minor league innings, so he could develop into something useful.
Labels: Escobar, Gonzalez, trade
¶ posted by Jim Turner at 11:49 PM | 0 comments
Sunday, December 13, 2009
To Trade or Not to Trade
Roy Halladay is the greatest Jays pitcher ever. Just consider the comparisons. He’s got the longevity to match “Diamond” Jim Clancy, without the losses; the stuff to match Roger Clemens without the alleged needle marks in his rump; the Cy Young to match Pat Hentgen, and the game day intensity of Jack Morris and Dave Stewart, while managing to spend more time doing it for the Jays. Halladay’s ability to pitch so much better than the bullpen, leading to multiple blown leads is comparable to Juan Guzman, without that curly mullet and he’s got a wife who challenges Cindy Key for the great social conscience award. The only comparable pitcher to spend a career in the baby blue is Dave Stieb, but Roy hasn’t subjected us to nearly as many in-game jock strap adjustments.
There is no doubt that Roy Halladay is a great pitcher, a great guy and a great bet to be traded. Halladay’s “people” have informed the general public that he will not entertain any trade talks once spring training begins. I’m pretty sure he’s bluffing, but that’s beside the point. He really should be traded as soon as possible for both his sake, and the Jays’.
He can’t help this team:
Halladay had a pretty good year by his standards, and the Jays still finished fourth. Attendance at Jays games was miserable last year even with the ace on the mound. The team doesn’t need to hang on to a great player for one more year if he’s going to help them to third or fourth place. It doesn’t matter how great he is.
Play For the Future:
There seem to be several exciting players developing within the Jays’ system. It’s time to start focussing on the Linds, Hills and Sniders without subjecting them to a summer long Roy Halladay farewell tour, sprinkled with some “Reports of my refusal to accept a trade after spring were vastly overrated”.
Fleece the Enemy:
If the Jays are planning to contend in a few years, it would help if they take some good young players who will be dominating at that time away from their competition. Do this trade, and put a hurt on someone’s farm system, Yankees, Bosox, Angels, anyone.
Now that we’re all in agreement on whether or not to trade Roy Halladay, our focus shifts to what we should get for him. It’s time to make like the winners of the old Wheel of Fortune. As we superimpose our heads onto the showcase of available major league talent we can see a lot of shiny happy players. I’m waiting like a kid on chanukah to see what gifts Santanthopolous has for us, but while we’re at it, I’d like to make a suggestion.
No Pitchers:
Are we done trying to build through pitching yet? Pitchers get injured, they just do! I’m sick and tired of salivating about the next great young arm, only to hear that they’ve taken a precautionary visit to Birmingham Alabama to meet Dr. James Andrews. One year later, they’re trying to find out what happened to their velocity, control and locker in the change room.
I also don’t like promising young pitchers with “lightning bolts for arms”, because too often we find out about their “ten cent heads” –my credit to Crash Davis, and apologies to AJ-. Roy Halladay is one of those rarities who has managed to combine a great arm with a great psychology, but not every young guy throwing 100 mph knows how to pitch, or is able to figure it out eventually.
It’s also difficult for a team to carry a swagger when it’s relying on pitching alone. Good pitching performances are keys to winning, but no good pitcher has a winning performance every time out. There is nothing more frustrating than wasting a Doc Halladay line of 1 ER 9 IP in a 1-0 loss. Even worse, there’s nothing more demoralising than knowing the ace is on the mound and joining the game in progress only to see that he’s down 4-0. It doesn’t matter how well Roy pitches for the next six innings, with no run support, the game’s over.
Consider the extreme case of the 2009 Yankees. Certainly they had some good pitching, but they also had a line up that seemed to win a game in its final at bat every other night. When a good pitcher has a bad start, they’re in the showers watching their team lose. When a good hitting line up has a bad start, they’re due and everybody knows it. The opposing staff starts over thinking and under pitching, setting the table for the next great comeback. A strong offence is a self-fulfilling prophecy.
The Jays also have a bevy of young arms that have proven themselves capable of pitching. This should fill the void until the young bats develop. After that, some of the throwers can become pitchers, and the rest of the holes can be covered through greedy free agent pitchers salivating at the chance to pitch for an offence that will spot them six runs a night. I recall Curt Shilling –then of the Diamondbacks- suggesting he’d ok a trade to the Jays in the first half of ’03 when they were pounding the ball all over the park.
Consider some current Jays:
Adam Lind (lf/dh/1b)
Aaron Hill (2b)
Travis Snider (rf) –he’s developing…right?
Vernon Wells (cf)-he’s bound to start hitting sooner or later
Those are four bats that could strike some fear in pitchers for a few years to come. Add three young hotshot bats from a Halladay trade and they could probably cover two of Lind’s spots, and one more at third base. If two of those pan out, you’ve got six good bats, which can be rounded out with defensive minded players at catcher, short and –sorry Vernon- cf. I’m not saying that it will all work out, but I don’t remember a lot of pitchers fearing the bats of Borders, Lee and White at the start of the 1992 campaign. Besides, MLB isn’t looking the other way anymore when it come to steroids, short stop and centre field might go back to the way of the glove-first, bat-if-you-have-to players.
Roy, it’s been a pleasure, but I think we’re going to go in a different direction. ¶ posted by Mark at 11:32 PM | 0 comments
There is no doubt that Roy Halladay is a great pitcher, a great guy and a great bet to be traded. Halladay’s “people” have informed the general public that he will not entertain any trade talks once spring training begins. I’m pretty sure he’s bluffing, but that’s beside the point. He really should be traded as soon as possible for both his sake, and the Jays’.
He can’t help this team:
Halladay had a pretty good year by his standards, and the Jays still finished fourth. Attendance at Jays games was miserable last year even with the ace on the mound. The team doesn’t need to hang on to a great player for one more year if he’s going to help them to third or fourth place. It doesn’t matter how great he is.
Play For the Future:
There seem to be several exciting players developing within the Jays’ system. It’s time to start focussing on the Linds, Hills and Sniders without subjecting them to a summer long Roy Halladay farewell tour, sprinkled with some “Reports of my refusal to accept a trade after spring were vastly overrated”.
Fleece the Enemy:
If the Jays are planning to contend in a few years, it would help if they take some good young players who will be dominating at that time away from their competition. Do this trade, and put a hurt on someone’s farm system, Yankees, Bosox, Angels, anyone.
Now that we’re all in agreement on whether or not to trade Roy Halladay, our focus shifts to what we should get for him. It’s time to make like the winners of the old Wheel of Fortune. As we superimpose our heads onto the showcase of available major league talent we can see a lot of shiny happy players. I’m waiting like a kid on chanukah to see what gifts Santanthopolous has for us, but while we’re at it, I’d like to make a suggestion.
No Pitchers:
Are we done trying to build through pitching yet? Pitchers get injured, they just do! I’m sick and tired of salivating about the next great young arm, only to hear that they’ve taken a precautionary visit to Birmingham Alabama to meet Dr. James Andrews. One year later, they’re trying to find out what happened to their velocity, control and locker in the change room.
I also don’t like promising young pitchers with “lightning bolts for arms”, because too often we find out about their “ten cent heads” –my credit to Crash Davis, and apologies to AJ-. Roy Halladay is one of those rarities who has managed to combine a great arm with a great psychology, but not every young guy throwing 100 mph knows how to pitch, or is able to figure it out eventually.
It’s also difficult for a team to carry a swagger when it’s relying on pitching alone. Good pitching performances are keys to winning, but no good pitcher has a winning performance every time out. There is nothing more frustrating than wasting a Doc Halladay line of 1 ER 9 IP in a 1-0 loss. Even worse, there’s nothing more demoralising than knowing the ace is on the mound and joining the game in progress only to see that he’s down 4-0. It doesn’t matter how well Roy pitches for the next six innings, with no run support, the game’s over.
Consider the extreme case of the 2009 Yankees. Certainly they had some good pitching, but they also had a line up that seemed to win a game in its final at bat every other night. When a good pitcher has a bad start, they’re in the showers watching their team lose. When a good hitting line up has a bad start, they’re due and everybody knows it. The opposing staff starts over thinking and under pitching, setting the table for the next great comeback. A strong offence is a self-fulfilling prophecy.
The Jays also have a bevy of young arms that have proven themselves capable of pitching. This should fill the void until the young bats develop. After that, some of the throwers can become pitchers, and the rest of the holes can be covered through greedy free agent pitchers salivating at the chance to pitch for an offence that will spot them six runs a night. I recall Curt Shilling –then of the Diamondbacks- suggesting he’d ok a trade to the Jays in the first half of ’03 when they were pounding the ball all over the park.
Consider some current Jays:
Adam Lind (lf/dh/1b)
Aaron Hill (2b)
Travis Snider (rf) –he’s developing…right?
Vernon Wells (cf)-he’s bound to start hitting sooner or later
Those are four bats that could strike some fear in pitchers for a few years to come. Add three young hotshot bats from a Halladay trade and they could probably cover two of Lind’s spots, and one more at third base. If two of those pan out, you’ve got six good bats, which can be rounded out with defensive minded players at catcher, short and –sorry Vernon- cf. I’m not saying that it will all work out, but I don’t remember a lot of pitchers fearing the bats of Borders, Lee and White at the start of the 1992 campaign. Besides, MLB isn’t looking the other way anymore when it come to steroids, short stop and centre field might go back to the way of the glove-first, bat-if-you-have-to players.
Roy, it’s been a pleasure, but I think we’re going to go in a different direction. ¶ posted by Mark at 11:32 PM | 0 comments
