Toronto Baseball Guys
Tuesday, June 05, 2007
  Math 106
Well isn't this exciting. Your Toronto Jays are in second place in the division. And while the seemingly unfathomable has happened again, and yet another regular goes down to injury, there is a weird sense of optimism surrounding the ball club.

The clubhouse chemistry seems great, with off-field antics at an all-time high. Rookies and youngsters are proving their worth. And the veterans surely can’t hit like fifth graders forever. (Can they?)

Reality check.

These Jays are 27-29.

It will take, at minimum, 95 wins to make the playoffs, to grab the wild card. And that was the goal this season, wasn’t it? Some quick math… the Jays need 68 more wins this season to reach 95. For the remaining 106 games, that translates to a .641 winning percentage. In all of the Major Leagues this season, that winning percentage has only been matched by the Red Sox, the best team in the bigs.

And the Jays are not the Red Sox.

Since May 10, the Jays are 14-8. Their best run of the year over an arbitrary timeframe. What’s that? A .636 winning percentage. Which won't cut it.

Don’t’ get me wrong. I’ll be excited as the Jays keep it close for the rest of the year. Once Big Hurt wakes up. Once Vernon stops pressing. Once Johnson and Zaun and Overbay come back. I’ll be up and down watching the wild-card chase. I’ll be rooting for the bad guys. I’ll be cursing the Yankees.

I’ll just stop doing the math.
 
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