Toronto Baseball Guys
Monday, March 24, 2008
Stewart over Johnson a Puzzling Choice
With the release of Reed Johnson, the Blue Jays' outfield picture has become a lot clearer. Shannon Stewart has made a triumphant return to the ballclub to share left field duties with Matt Stairs.
Stewart, a lifetime .300 hitter, scuffled through injuries and ineffectiveness after a big second half with the Twins in 2003. He rebounded with a respectable season in Oakland in 2007, and in terms of career value has been a better player than Johnson. He's always hit for a good average, has a little pop (12 homers in '07), a little speed (11/14 in stolen bases in '07) and will take a walk.
That said, if the job you're applying for is Matt Stairs' platoon partner, the top bullet points on the resume should be the ability to mash left-handers and to play defense.
Let's start with hitting lefties:
That's a pretty clear edge for Johnson. Defensively, Johnson can play all three outfield spots and he can play them well. He's a prototypical 4th outfielder. Stewart, meanwhile, is limited to playing left field thanks to arm strength that's just this side of a 9-year-old girl. He's not a bad fielder, but Johnson is clearly better.
There may have been some worry about Johnson's recovery after back surgery, but he was hitting around .290 at the time of his release, which, spring training stat caveats aside, is certainly in line with his previous level of ability. Stewart is hitting about .225, so it's not as though he's blown the doors off the Grapefruit League to win the job.
There's a case to be made for keeping Stewart for his ability to hit right-handers, an area in which the Jays were sorely lacking last season, but whose at-bats does he take? Stairs annihilated righties (.288/.364/.567) and Stewart certainly isn't going to DH in front of Frank Thomas.
He's a better everday option than Johnson, should Stairs go down, but in that case, the Jays would be better off letting Adam Lind play.
Lastly, he's cheaper than Johnson, who was slated to make $3 million. It's hard to imagine a financial motive for this move, since $3 million is practically nothing in 2008, particularly for the only team in baseball that has seen the currency it uses skyrocket in value over the last couple of years.
In the big picture, a team's choice of 4th outfielder is, in the best case scenario, probably worth no more than an extra win. But it does seem odd that for 2008, the Jays have given the job to the older and less versatile player. ¶ posted by Jim Turner at 3:21 PM | 1 comments
Stewart, a lifetime .300 hitter, scuffled through injuries and ineffectiveness after a big second half with the Twins in 2003. He rebounded with a respectable season in Oakland in 2007, and in terms of career value has been a better player than Johnson. He's always hit for a good average, has a little pop (12 homers in '07), a little speed (11/14 in stolen bases in '07) and will take a walk.
That said, if the job you're applying for is Matt Stairs' platoon partner, the top bullet points on the resume should be the ability to mash left-handers and to play defense.
Let's start with hitting lefties:
2007 AVG OBP SLG
Johnson .325 .381 .532
Stewart .269 .333 .365
2005-2007 AVG OBP SLG
Johnson .305 .380 .451
Stewart .263 .331 .351
That's a pretty clear edge for Johnson. Defensively, Johnson can play all three outfield spots and he can play them well. He's a prototypical 4th outfielder. Stewart, meanwhile, is limited to playing left field thanks to arm strength that's just this side of a 9-year-old girl. He's not a bad fielder, but Johnson is clearly better.
There may have been some worry about Johnson's recovery after back surgery, but he was hitting around .290 at the time of his release, which, spring training stat caveats aside, is certainly in line with his previous level of ability. Stewart is hitting about .225, so it's not as though he's blown the doors off the Grapefruit League to win the job.
There's a case to be made for keeping Stewart for his ability to hit right-handers, an area in which the Jays were sorely lacking last season, but whose at-bats does he take? Stairs annihilated righties (.288/.364/.567) and Stewart certainly isn't going to DH in front of Frank Thomas.
He's a better everday option than Johnson, should Stairs go down, but in that case, the Jays would be better off letting Adam Lind play.
Lastly, he's cheaper than Johnson, who was slated to make $3 million. It's hard to imagine a financial motive for this move, since $3 million is practically nothing in 2008, particularly for the only team in baseball that has seen the currency it uses skyrocket in value over the last couple of years.
In the big picture, a team's choice of 4th outfielder is, in the best case scenario, probably worth no more than an extra win. But it does seem odd that for 2008, the Jays have given the job to the older and less versatile player. ¶ posted by Jim Turner at 3:21 PM | 1 comments
Wednesday, March 12, 2008
Aw, Crap
The Jays are winning at a .333 clip so far in 2008. With six feet of snow on just about every sidewalk in Toronto, that's no big deal. As anyone who has ever followed Grapefruit League action knows, spring training games are completely meaningless. Remember Juan Samuel leading the league in homers? I'm sure he does, too.
Spring training games are useful only in allowing position players to accrue some at bats and ease back into shape and allowing pitchers to build stamina. Clubs would be perfectly happy to go 0-for-spring, so long as they don't hear the word "ow."The Blue Jays, riddled with injuries in 2007, have enjoyed an uneventful spring medically, with the exception of A.J. "For this much money, I should have someone open my car doors for me" Burnett and his crushed fingernail.
That is, until today, when Casey Janssen said "ow."
With a torn labrum, Janssen is not only out of the picture this season, his odds of coming back and being an effective major league pitcher are rather long. Despite his excellent 2007, Janssen's strikeout numbers didn't mesh with the profile of an elite reliever, and he was a little hit lucky (the batting average against him on balls is play was just .260). So it may have been a lot to ask for a repeat performance.
Where the Janssen injury really hurts is the versatility it costs the team. Without Janssen in the pen, the Jays can't afford a letdown from Jeremy Accardo, or a delay in the return B.J. Ryan, or another Brandon League relapse. Without Janssen's presence in the race for 5th starter, one of Jesse Litsch or Gustavo Chacin will have to perform, and there's now added pressure for the rest of the rotation to remain healthy.
This isn't a fatal blow to the Jays' season - after all, B.J. Ryan went down last year and the bullpen was still one of the best in the league. If Ryan's even close to his performance pre-surgery, he will easily replace Janssen. The rotation is less of a sure thing, especially in light of Chacin looking positively ordinary in his first action. But again, it was his first action, and spring is the time to give up 420 foot Alex Rodriguez moonshots. Should his struggles continue, the Jays now find themselves with one less option - and a team hoping to compete for the AL East title can't afford to lose too many options. ¶ posted by Jim Turner at 3:17 PM | 0 comments
Spring training games are useful only in allowing position players to accrue some at bats and ease back into shape and allowing pitchers to build stamina. Clubs would be perfectly happy to go 0-for-spring, so long as they don't hear the word "ow."The Blue Jays, riddled with injuries in 2007, have enjoyed an uneventful spring medically, with the exception of A.J. "For this much money, I should have someone open my car doors for me" Burnett and his crushed fingernail.
That is, until today, when Casey Janssen said "ow."
With a torn labrum, Janssen is not only out of the picture this season, his odds of coming back and being an effective major league pitcher are rather long. Despite his excellent 2007, Janssen's strikeout numbers didn't mesh with the profile of an elite reliever, and he was a little hit lucky (the batting average against him on balls is play was just .260). So it may have been a lot to ask for a repeat performance.
Where the Janssen injury really hurts is the versatility it costs the team. Without Janssen in the pen, the Jays can't afford a letdown from Jeremy Accardo, or a delay in the return B.J. Ryan, or another Brandon League relapse. Without Janssen's presence in the race for 5th starter, one of Jesse Litsch or Gustavo Chacin will have to perform, and there's now added pressure for the rest of the rotation to remain healthy.
This isn't a fatal blow to the Jays' season - after all, B.J. Ryan went down last year and the bullpen was still one of the best in the league. If Ryan's even close to his performance pre-surgery, he will easily replace Janssen. The rotation is less of a sure thing, especially in light of Chacin looking positively ordinary in his first action. But again, it was his first action, and spring is the time to give up 420 foot Alex Rodriguez moonshots. Should his struggles continue, the Jays now find themselves with one less option - and a team hoping to compete for the AL East title can't afford to lose too many options. ¶ posted by Jim Turner at 3:17 PM | 0 comments
